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Smart-phone IQ test
New and upcoming PDA/cell phone hybrids look sharper and offer more functionality, but why do most of them flunk Econ 101?

By David Carnoy
Executive editor, CNET Reviews
(8/5/02)

Every time that a new smart phone--or communicator, as some call such a hybrid device--arrives, I get an urge to write a column about the state of this evolving category, which everybody seems interested in but relatively few people are buying into. And by buying, I don't mean embracing; I mean plunking down cold, hard cash for a cold, hard product.

This time, the newly released product is the T-Mobile Pocket PC phone. The Thera for Verizon service is another Pocket PC/phone that's also on the market, but T-Mobile is the first to include the Pocket PC Phone Edition OS. In contrast, the Thera's phone software is overlaid but not integrated into the OS. Indeed, this makes the T-Mobile a smarter smart phone. But unfortunately, smarts don't always translate into success.

Humble numbers
I can't give you much in the way of numbers, but a Kyocera rep told me last month that the company had sold about 200,000 units of its monochrome Palm phone, the 6035. Kyocera was quite happy with the showing, which exceeded the company's expectations--or so the rep said. The company hopes to sell about the same number or slightly more of its upcoming color Palm phone, the 7135.


It's hard for a company or an individual to invest $400 or more for a product that may be outdated in a year's time.
Selling a couple of hundred thousand units of a high-tech product, especially one that costs $400 to $500 as most smart phones do, is nothing to sneeze at. But Nokia, which sells millions of low-priced phones, probably wouldn't be too impressed. The company even has a smart phone of its own, the 9290, which isn't exactly burning its way up the best-seller list stateside.

A large part of the problem is price. Most of these products, including the much loved BlackBerry--which, by the way, has also sold in only the hundreds of thousands--are marketed toward business users who are looking for an all-in-one gizmo with voice, wireless e-mail, and electronic organizer functions. Even so, it's hard for a company or an individual to invest $400 or more for a product that will most likely be outdated in a year's time.

Kyocera's 6035, for example, was $399 when it was released last year but now costs $100 or less. Remember the phone module for the Handspring Visor? It listed for about $250 when it was first came out. Within months, it was practically free with a new service contract. Will Handspring's early Treos, the 180 and the 270, share the same fate? Perhaps.

Subsidy nation
In the whole hybrid scheme, only the BlackBerry has managed to hold its value, arguably because RIM's two most popular models are very well designed. They do what they're meant to do and not much more--and, in fact, much less than the T-Mobile Pocket PC phone.


Why not tack on a two-year contract in exchange for a $200 subsidy? What's the big deal?
Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting that the Pocket PC phone is doomed to fail. It may actually sell well and meet T-Mobile and Microsoft's expectations. But it has a few chinks in its armor that may make buyers think twice about spending $500, even with the limited-time $50 rebate. My biggest gripe is that it doesn't have a built-in keyboard, which I think is essential for serious e-mail junkies. Yes, the Pocket PC's handwriting-recognition software is decent, but it doesn't take the place of typing. Also, the Internet experience via a GPRS connection is lackluster, so the capability isn't so important right now.

The point I'm trying to make is that until their prices drop to more palatable levels, most of these devices aren't really going to be more than niche products for early adopters. Yes, someone needs to make money, but service providers and hardware manufacturers need to work on offering consumers better hardware subsidies in exchange for spending more on their service plans. I thought the idea behind these new PDA phones with higher-speed GPRS and 1xRTT connections was to get people to spend more money on data. Don't these companies know by now that people expect to pay less in the short run if they're expected to pay more in the long run? Why not tack on a two-year contract in exchange for a $200 subsidy? What's the big deal?

The right idea
It'll be interesting to see what happens when Sprint PCS launches its 3G network this month, as sources outside Sprint indicate. Both Sprint and Verizon, which has already launched its 3G network, will be competing for the same data-guzzling customers and coming out with phones and communicators that are Web- and e-mail-friendly, including the much-anticipated, Sprint-branded Treo. It may take a little while, but hopefully, both carriers will come to see the long-term benefits of providing more affordable hardware.

At the same time, Danger has unofficially announced that its overly hyped Hip Top phone/PDA/wireless e-mail device, which appears to have a terrific design and will cost only around $200, will finally be available to consumers this September. Of course, the company's been unofficially saying this for months, so we'll take the latest claim with a grain of salt. But if it turns up and costs and works as advertised--and those are big ifs--the Hip Top will be a hit, not only because it's smart but because it's smartly priced.

Fully Equipped archive Read more cell phone coverage next

David Carnoy is an executive editor for CNET Reviews. Have a question for him? Let us know!



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